Forest fire disaster, trees burned at night, natural destruction of forest fires, damaged environment. By fifthplanet for AdobeStock.
Scientists Tackle Critical Gap in Fire Prediction as Current Models Fail to Capture How Living Trees Influence Wildfire Behavior
When wildfires rage through forests, current prediction models treat trees as static obstacles—but researchers at the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering are revolutionizing wildfire science by developing the first computational models that capture how living, moving trees actually influence fire behavior.
Associate Professors Neda Yaghoobian and Kourosh Shoele from the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering are leading groundbreaking research to solve one of fire science’s most pressing challenges: the inability to accurately predict how fires spread through dynamic forest environments where trees interact with wind and flames.
The research partnership includes researchers Albert Simeoni and Reza Ziazi from Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI).
The Critical Challenge in Current Fire Modeling
“Current fire models oversimplify forests as static blocks and do not accurately capture how trees sway, bend and influence airflow and fire dynamics. These oversights can lead to inaccurate forecasts of fire behavior, which may limit the effectiveness of prescribed burns and emergency planning,” Yaghoobian explains.
The research comes at a critical time when wildfires have become more frequent, intense, and destructive over the past 20 years. According to recent studies, wildfire activity across the United States has approximately doubled over two decades, with economic impacts now estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
Revolutionary Approach to Tree Biomechanics in Fire Science
What sets this research apart is its unprecedented focus on tree biomechanics—the study of how trees respond to mechanical loads and resist failure—and how vegetation movement affects fire spread patterns.
“Tree movements in the wind play a powerful yet little-understood role in how wildfires spread. The main challenge is how to capture this effect in models. In this project, we are tackling this problem by developing tools that, for the first time, let us predict how trees’ bending and swaying movements shape wildland fire behavior,” Shoele said.
This innovative approach combines advanced computational fluid dynamics, biomechanical principles and combustion science to create more accurate and realistic fire behavior predictions.
Advanced Physics-Based Modeling for Enhanced Fire Prediction
The research team is developing sophisticated computational models that integrate fundamental principles from multiple disciplines to better understand the complex interactions between wind, vegetation, and fire in forest environments.
“Our engineering team is developing models to investigate how tree canopy aerodynamics affect fire dynamics and how surface fires become high-intensity crown fires,” Yaghoobian said. “Our WPI collaborators will conduct experiments in the Fire Science lab in their Department of Fire Protection Engineering to provide data for our model validation.”
The computational models will require supercomputer capabilities to handle their complexity. The enhanced models represent a significant advancement in wildfire modeling technology, with the team expecting these tools to provide more realistic predictions of fire behavior, enabling land managers to anticipate and respond more effectively to wildfire threats.
Innovative Laboratory-Field Research Partnership
The collaboration with WPI creates a unique research ecosystem that combines theoretical modeling with practical experimentation. While the FAMU-FSU team focuses on developing advanced computational models, their WPI partners conduct critical laboratory experiments that validate and refine these models.
This innovative approach combines advanced computational fluid dynamics, biomechanical principles and combustion science to create more accurate and realistic fire behavior predictions.
This partnership approach ensures that the theoretical advances translate into practical tools that can be used by fire management professionals. The laboratory experiments provide essential data for model validation, while the computational models offer insights that inform future experimental designs.
Training the Next Generation of Wildfire Scientists
A key component of the project involves extensive collaboration between fire management practitioners and engineering students. The team is working with natural resource management entities to create unique training opportunities for students from both institutions.
Students trained in computational and experimental modeling will receive hands-on training in fire management practices and real-world case studies. In return, these students will share their research expertise with fire professionals and the broader public, creating a valuable knowledge exchange.
The project’s educational impact extends to improving public safety, enhancing wildfire resilience, and developing the next generation of interdisciplinary wildfire scientists who understand both the technical and practical aspects of fire management.
NSF Recognizes Research Excellence with $1.04 Million Award
The breakthrough research has earned recognition from the National Science Foundation (NSF), which awarded the team a prestigious $1.04 million grant to Florida State University (FSU) for the three-year collaborative project.
Their project, “Advancing Wildland Fire Modeling by Capturing Unresolved Canopy Dynamics,” represents one of two FSU awards among fifteen total projects funded under this highly competitive new NSF program. The other FSU project involves multiple departments, including researchers from the joint college’s Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center.
This recognition highlights the exceptional quality and potential impact of the research, positioning the joint college as a leader in computational fire science and wildfire modeling innovation.
Implications for Fire Management and Public Safety
“This understanding is pivotal for improving fire response strategies and ensuring public safety in areas vulnerable to wildfire,” Yaghoobian emphasizes.
The enhanced predictive capabilities may play a critical role in supporting proactive fire management strategies, improving prescribed burn planning and helping communities prepare for the inevitable challenges that wildfires present.
Looking Toward the Future of Fire Science
As wildfire patterns continue to evolve with changing climate conditions, the need for advanced modeling capabilities becomes increasingly urgent. This research represents a significant step forward in addressing these challenges through innovative computational approaches and interdisciplinary collaboration.
“The knowledge gained from this research will not only enhance predictive capabilities but will also be integral in training future professionals who will face the challenges of wildfire management in an evolving climate,” Yaghoobian notes.
The outcomes of this groundbreaking research may fundamentally change how scientists and fire managers understand and respond to wildfire threats, potentially saving lives and protecting communities across the country.
Editor’s Note: This article was edited with a custom prompt for Claude Sonnet 4, an AI assistant created by Anthropic. The AI optimized the article for SEO discoverability, improved clarity, structure and readability while preserving the original reporting and factual content. All information and viewpoints remain those of the author and publication. This article was edited and fact-checked by college staff before being published. This disclosure is part of our commitment to transparency in our editorial process. Last edited: 11-9-2025.
RELATED ARTICLES
Engineering researcher Neda Yaghoobian receives NSF CAREER Award for fire science research